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Purpose: This study aims to examine the multiscale predictability power of COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases on the S&P 500 index (USA), CAC30 index (France), BSE index (India), two strategic commodity futures (West Texas intermediate [WTI] crude oil and Gold) and five main uncertainty indices Equity Market Volatility Ticker (EMV), CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), US Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) and CBOE ETF Gold Volatility Index (GVZ). Furthermore, the authors analyze the impact of uncertainty indices and COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases on the price returns of stocks (S&P500, CAC300 and BSE), crude oil and gold. Design/methodology/approach: The authors used the wavelet coherency method and quantile regression approach to achieve the objectives. Findings: The results show strong multiscale comovements between the variables under investigation. Lead-lag relationships vary across frequencies. Finally, COVID-19 news is a powerful predictor of the uncertainty indices at intermediate (4–16 days) and low (32–64 days) frequencies for EPU and at low frequency for EMV, VIX, OVX and GVZ indices from January to April 2020. The S&P500, CAC30 and BSE indexes and gold prices comove with COVID-19 news at low frequencies during the sample period. By contrast, COVID-19 news and WTI oil moderately correlated at low frequencies. Finally, the returns on equity and commodity assets are influenced by uncertainty indices and are sensitive to market conditions. Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature by exploring the time and frequency dependence between COVID-19 news (confirmed and death cases) on the returns of financial and commodity markets and uncertainty indexes. The findings can assist market participants and policymakers in considering the predictability of future prices and uncertainty over time and across frequencies when setting up regulations that aim to enhance market efficiency. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.
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This paper examines the dynamic spillover interconnectedness of G7 Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) markets. We use the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), the time-varying parameters vector-autoregression (TVP-VAR) model, and the quantile regression approach. The result show that REITs network connectedness is dynamic and experiences an abrupt increase in the first wave of COVID-19 outbreak (2020Q1). We also observe a substantial abrupt decrease in connectedness during the success of vaccination programs (end 2021). The connectedness among assets is much stronger during COVID-19 than before. The REITs of Japan and Italy are net receivers of spillover and those of US and UK are net transmitters of spillovers before and during COVID-19. Conversely, the REIT of Canada and Germany (France) switches from net receivers (contributors) of spillovers before the pandemic to net contributors (receivers) during the COVID-19. Finally, we show that News Sentiment index, Geopolitical Risk index, Economic Policy Uncertainty index, US Treasury yield, and Stock Volatility index influence the spillover magnitude across quantiles. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.
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This study examines the spillovers and connectedness between oil and the African stock markets under bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions. Using the quantile connectedness method, we find higher spillovers under bearish market conditions than in both tranquil and bullish market conditions. Oil is a net transmitter of spillovers in the African markets. Furthermore, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa are net receivers of spillovers, and Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, and Mauritius are net transmitters of spillovers in the lower quantile. In the median quantile, Ghana shifts to being a net transmitter of spillovers, whereas Egypt becomes a net receiver of spillovers. In the upper quantiles, all markets are net transmitters of spillovers, except for Mauritius and Egypt. We find a strong connectedness between oil and the Nigerian market during bearish and tranquil market conditions which alleviates the bullish market scenario. Moreover, spillovers reached the maximum level in early 2020, corresponding to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The portfolio analysis shows that an optimally weighted portfolio offers the best downside risk for all markets. The hedged portfolio offers the best risk reduction for all economies. © 2023 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland
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This paper examines the quantile dependence, connectedness, and return spillovers between gold and the price returns of leading cryptocurrencies, using quantile cross-spectral, the return spillovers based the quantile VAR, and quantile connectedness approaches. The results show that the dependencies within cryptocurrencies are highly symmetric and sensitive to different quantile arrangements. Under normal market conditions, we find a high positive dependence within cryptocurrencies and a low positive dependence between cryptocurrencies and gold. The dependence is higher at long term than intermediate- and short- terms before the pandemic during bearish market conditions. In contrast, the degree of dependence decreases at the intermediate- and long-terms during COVID-19 period than before. Moreover, the magnitude of return spillovers is higher at lower quantile (bearish market) than upper quantile (bullish market). Gold serves as a safe haven and diversifier asset for cryptocurrencies during COVID-19 outbreak at both intermediate and long terms. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.
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Journal of the International Network for Korean Language and Culture 19-2, 259-280. This article aims to examine the state of Korean ww .e tic e et language education in Guatemala's public elementary schools and suggest future directions for its stable settlement and continuous development in Guatemala's public education. In March 2020, four public elementary schools in Guatemala adopted Korean as a regular foreign language subject for the first time. As of February 2022, ten elementary schools are offering regular Korean language courses. In Guatemalan public schools, Korean language education has grown quantitatively over the past two years despite COVID-19. However, some tasks need to be solved for the Korean language to have a stable footing in Guatemala's public education, ensure internal stability, and promote qualitative growth together. First, the most urgent task is to secure Korean language teachers. For the stable production of professional Korean teachers, it is essential to establish a training course for Korean language teachers and offer a major in Korean studies as a degree program within universities. Additionally, developing customized Korean textbooks considering the age, level, and culture of elementary school students in Guatemala is essential. Moreover, it is necessary to develop a Korean language curriculum so that the Korean language can establish its status as an official foreign language of Guatemala. Lastly, to expand the base of Korean language education in Guatemala, an institution in charge of spreading the Korean language and culture should be rapidly established.(Sogang University, Yonsei University, Myongji University)
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Purpose This paper examines asymmetric multifractality (A-MF) in the leading Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets under different turbulent periods (global financial crisis [GFC] and European sovereign debt crisis [ESDC], oil price crash and COVID-19 pandemic). Design/methodology/approach This study applies the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) method of Cao et al. (2013) to identify A-MF and MENA stock market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings The results show strong evidence of different patterns of MF during upward and downward trends. Inefficiency is higher during upward trends than during downward trends in most of the stock markets in the whole sample period, and the opposite is true during financial crises. The Turkish stock market is the least inefficient during upward and downward trends. A-MF intensifies with an increase in scales. The evolution of excessive A-MF for MENA stock returns is heterogeneous. Most of the stock markets are more inefficient during a pandemic crisis than during an oil crash and other financial crises. However, the inefficiency of the Saudi Arabia and Qatar stock markets is highly sensitive to oil price crashes. Overall, the level of inefficiency varies across market trends, scales and stock markets and over time. The findings of this study provide investors and policymakers with valuable insights into efficient investment strategies, risk management and financial stability. Originality/value This paper first explores A-MF in the MENA emerging stock markets. The A-MF analysis provides useful information to investors regarding asset allocation, portfolio risk management and investment strategies during bullish and bearish market states. In addition, this paper examines A-MF under different turbulent periods, such as the GFC, the ESDC, the 2014-2016 oil crash and the COVID-19 pandemic.
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This study examines the multiscale spillovers and nonlinear causalities between the crude oil futures market and the stock markets of the United States (US), Canada, China, Russia, and Venezuela before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the wavelet coherency method, we find strong co-movement between the oil futures market and these five stock markets, particularly from March 2020 to May 2020 (initial period of the COVID-19 outbreak) at high frequency. Furthermore, we find positive co-movements at low frequency during the overall COVID-19 period. This finding suggests that the bearish trend of stock markets is associated with a downward movement in oil prices. Using the wavelet-based Granger causality approach, we find that the oil and stock indices have less co-movement on a smaller scale but greater movement on a larger scale across all periods. As an exception, the Russian market is significantly influenced by oil prices, even on a small scale, before the COVID-19 period, but not after the beginning of the pandemic. We also find effects in the opposite direction—the Canadian and U.S. markets influence oil prices on a small scale during the COVID-19 period, an effect that is not visible for the U.S. market in the pre-COVID-19 sample. The results also show a significant bidirectional causality from oil to stock markets and vice versa during Russian-Saudi oil price war at high scale. Furthermore, we find that investors should hold more oil futures than stock shares in their portfolios for all periods. This evidence confirms that oil instruments are important for hedging during normal periods and act as safe-haven assets during crisis periods. We observe that the U.S. and Canadian stock markets were more affected by oil price shocks than were other countries. © 2021 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland
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Background: Few studies have reported the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We measured the association between underlying CHB and antiviral use with infection rates among patients who underwent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing. Methods: In total, 204,418 patients > 20 years old who were tested for SARSCoV-2 between January and June 2020 were included. For each case patient with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, random controls were selected from the target population who had been exposed to someone with COVID-19 but had a negative SARS-CoV-2 test result. We merged claim-based data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database collected January 1, 2015 and August 18, 2020. Endpoints examined were SARS-CoV-2 infection rate and severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19. Results: The proportion of underlying CHB was lower in COVID-19 positive patients (n = 267, 3.5%) than in COVID-19 negative controls (n = 2482, 5.4%). Underlying CHB was significantly associated with a lower SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate, after adjusting for comorbidities (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.65;P < 0.001). Among patients with confirmed COVID-19, underlying CHB tended to confer a 66% greater risk of severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19, although this value was statistically insignificant. Antiviral agent treatment including tenofovir and entecavir was associated with a reduced SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate (aOR 0.49;P < 0.001), while treatment was not associated with severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19. Conclusion: Patients with CHB who received antiviral agents had a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and no statistically significant indication that they experienced enhanced risk of severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19 was observed.
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Purpose This paper examines dynamic return spillovers and connectedness networks among international stock exchange markets. The authors account for asymmetry by distinguishing between positive and negative returns. Design/methodology/approach This paper employs the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to measure the volatility spillover index for total, positive and negative volatility. Findings The results show time-varying and asymmetric volatility spillovers among the stock markets under investigation. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, bad volatility spillovers are more pronounced and dominated over good volatility spillovers, indicating contagion effects. Originality/value The presence of confirmed COVID-19 cases positively (negatively) affects the good and bad spillovers under low and intermediate (upper) quantiles. Both types of spillovers at various quantiles agree also influenced by the number of COVID-19 deaths.
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Drawing on governmental statements, press releases and major news reports on COVID-19 related measures, support and social issues, we illustrate and examine the challenges families are facing in Singapore during the pandemic. Employing a dual approach, we illustrate the extent of various institutional support and resources for families offered by the government in tandem with social distancing measures to restrict social activities, and closure of non-essential business, and also document issues related to the economy, education, family interactions and mental well-being of families from different social backgrounds. This approach enables us to show the extent to which Singaporean families have adapted to the different economic and social stressors and how institutional support has been utilized as a catalyst to resilience. The pandemic as a force of social change demands urgent research on the social impact on and resilience of families in Singapore. Future research directions should include children's development with the interaction of family socioeconomic conditions, focus on mental well-being of all generations in the family, continuous safeguard of victims of domestic violence, empowerment, and investigations of the shifting family values. A concerted research strategy will offer the opportunity for a better understanding of the paradigm shift experienced by Singaporean families, and, to identify policy implications on strengthening the resilience of families. © 2020 Journal of Comparative Family Studies.